Is now a good time to buy a home? I get asked this more than any other question, and I understand why. You don’t want to buy at the top. You don’t want to overpay. You don’t want to look back in two years and wish you’d waited.
Here’s how I actually answer it: I don’t time the market. I run your numbers. If the payment works, the savings work, and you’re staying put — it’s a good time for you. If any of those three don’t work, it’s not. That’s the whole answer. The rest of this post is how I check each one.
The three numbers that decide it
1. The payment. A $700,000 house on FHA — 3.5% down, 30-year fixed at 6.94% — is $5,881 a month, all in: principal and interest, property tax, insurance, and mortgage insurance. In plain dollars: for every $100 you bring home before taxes, FHA lets up to $56 go to your debts, house payment included. With no other debts, that takes about $126,000 a year. At my 25% rule, it’s $282,300. If that payment works for your life — you can pay it, save a little, and sleep at night — then the rate is just a number on the paperwork. If it doesn’t work, no forecast fixes it.
2. The savings after closing. Closing costs add roughly $14,000 to $35,000 on top of the down payment on a $700,000 house. If buying empties your savings to zero, you’re not ready yet — and that’s fine. Keep saving. The house will still be there when you’re ready, and you’ll buy it from a position of strength instead of stress.
3. How long you’re staying put. If you’re moving in under five years, renting usually wins. If you’re staying 5–7 years or more, buying starts to win — your payment stays flat while rent climbs, and every month you’re building equity instead of paying someone else’s mortgage.
When the original post says yes — and when it says wait
The original post asked the same question back in 2022, and its answer holds up: it’s a good time to buy when you can afford the payment, you have the savings, and you’re staying put. It’s not a good time when you’re stretching to the max, emptying your savings, or buying because someone told you prices only go up. The market doesn’t care about your timeline. Your numbers do.
Don’t buy assuming you’ll refinance later
Rates have been falling — Freddie Mac’s survey went 7.40% (October 15) → 7.32% (October 22) → 7.24% (October 29) → 7.18% (November 5, 2026). That drop — 22 points, and a “point” here means a hundredth of a percent, so 0.22% — saves about $103 a month in principal and interest on a $700,000 FHA loan. A quarter-point drop from today’s FHA rate — 6.94% to 6.69% — would save about $115 a month. Real money. But don’t buy a payment you can’t live with today because you assume a refinance will fix it later. A future refinance is a bonus, not the plan.
What about waiting?
Waiting wins when the payment only works if rates drop, when buying empties your savings, or when you’re moving soon. Waiting loses when you’re just scared of the number on the rate sheet while your payment actually works. California’s median home price was $899,720 in September 2026 (California Association of Realtors, released October 19, 2026), up 1.7% from a year ago. Prices near $900,000 aren’t waiting for you.
Hot market or cool market — the decision is still yours
In a hot market, homes sell fast, above asking, with multiple offers. In a cool market, homes sit longer and sellers negotiate. Neither one changes your three numbers. A hot market doesn’t make a bad payment good. A cool market doesn’t make a payment you can’t afford affordable. The decision is still yours — and it’s still the same three numbers.
One more thing from the original post that still matters: if you already own a home and you’re thinking about a HELOC (a home equity line of credit — a credit line secured by your house) or a cash-out refinance (a new, bigger loan that pays off the old one and hands you the difference in cash) to buy the next one, talk to your lender first. Rates and rules have changed, and the math that worked in 2022 doesn’t necessarily work now.
My Take
If the deal only works if rates drop, it doesn’t work.
What to do with this
- Run your numbers in the Home Affordability Calculator — the payment is the reality check.
- If the cash is the problem, read Down Payment Assistance in California: Every Program Worth Knowing in 2026. One honest warning: CalHFA Dream For All is closed — its 2026 window ran February 24–March 16, 2026.
- Read How to Budget for Buying a House for the 25% rule.
- Then start your pre-approval and I’ll run your exact numbers at today’s rate.
Hear me walk through this on the podcast: Episode 9 — Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home?. Start here: Start Here hub.
Numbers in this post use the FHA rate from Mortgage Reports, November 6, 2026 (6.94%), and the Freddie Mac rate from November 5, 2026 (7.18%). Property tax (1.25%) and insurance (~0.5% of value) are estimates — your county and your quote will differ. California median home price $899,720 (September 2026) per the California Association of Realtors. This is education, not a rate quote or a loan approval. Dat Nguyen, Certified Mortgage Advisor, NMLS 1379110.