Headlines keep promising drama, but the 2025 housing story is quieter—and more strategic—than most people think. In this episode of the First Time Home Buyer Podcast, we break down what actually matters for buyers right now: steady prices, more inventory, and mortgage rates drifting lower without a freefall.
A small shift in rates could invite millions of buyers back into the market—reshaping the starter-home battlefield almost overnight.
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Key Takeaways From This Episode
- Prices are steady, not crashing.
California’s average sale price is up just 1.1% year-over-year; Orange County is slightly stronger at 1.6%. The Midwest remains resilient, while some Sun Belt markets may see modest pullbacks. - Inventory is improving.
Buyers finally have more choices, with days on market up 58% year-over-year in places like Orange County (from 12 to 19 days). - Rates matter more than prices.
A single percentage point drop in mortgage rates can unlock as many as 5 million new eligible buyers—meaning more competition and pressure on starter homes. - Negotiating power is back.
Sale-to-list ratios have softened to ~98%. That opens the door to seller credits, repairs, or even seller-paid rate buydowns. - What drives rates?
Keep an eye on inflation (CPI reports) and unemployment—these are the Fed’s biggest levers. Mortgage rates often move on expectations before official announcements.
What This Means for First-Time Buyers
- Don’t wait for the mythical “perfect moment.”
- Focus on fit, budget, and long-term stability.
- Use today’s calmer market to negotiate favorable terms.
- Have a refinance strategy ready in case rates dip further.